I’d add to this that you do also have the possibility that 1-3 happen, but they happen much later than many people currently think. My personal take is that the probability that ‘either AGI’s impact comes in more than ten years or it’s not that radical’ is >50%, certainly far more than 0%.
I’d add to this that you do also have the possibility that 1-3 happen, but they happen much later than many people currently think. My personal take is that the probability that ‘either AGI’s impact comes in more than ten years or it’s not that radical’ is >50%, certainly far more than 0%.