Well hence the caveat. It may not continue to exist, and encouraging it to do so seems valuable.
But the timescale Toby gave for the long reflection seems to take us to well over to the far side of most foreseeable x-risks, meaning a) it won’t have helped us solve them, but rather will only be possible as a consequence of having done so and b) it might well exacerbate them if it turns out that the majority of risks are local, and we’ve forced ourselves to sit in one spot contemplating them rather than spread out to other star systems.
Hanson’s concern seems to be an extension of b), where it ends up causing them directly, which also seems plausible.
Well hence the caveat. It may not continue to exist, and encouraging it to do so seems valuable.
But the timescale Toby gave for the long reflection seems to take us to well over to the far side of most foreseeable x-risks, meaning a) it won’t have helped us solve them, but rather will only be possible as a consequence of having done so and b) it might well exacerbate them if it turns out that the majority of risks are local, and we’ve forced ourselves to sit in one spot contemplating them rather than spread out to other star systems.
Hanson’s concern seems to be an extension of b), where it ends up causing them directly, which also seems plausible.