I imagine that at any point in time either big tech or AI safety orgs/funders are cash-constrained. Or maybe that at any point in time we’ll have an estimate which party will be more cash-constrained during the crunch time.
When the estimate shows that safety efforts will be more cash-constrained, then it stands to reason that we should mission-hedge by investing (in some smart fashion) in big tech stock. If the estimate shows that big tech will be more cash-constrained (e.g., because the AI safety bottlenecks are elsewhere entirely), then it stands to reason that we should perhaps even divest from big tech stock, even at a loss.
But if we’re in a situation where it doesn’t seem sensible to divest, then investing is probably also not so bad at the current margin.
I’m leaning towards thinking that investing is not so bad at the current margin, but I was surprised by the magnitude of the effect of divesting according to Paul Christiano’s analysis, so I could easily be wrong about that.
I imagine that at any point in time either big tech or AI safety orgs/funders are cash-constrained. Or maybe that at any point in time we’ll have an estimate which party will be more cash-constrained during the crunch time.
When the estimate shows that safety efforts will be more cash-constrained, then it stands to reason that we should mission-hedge by investing (in some smart fashion) in big tech stock. If the estimate shows that big tech will be more cash-constrained (e.g., because the AI safety bottlenecks are elsewhere entirely), then it stands to reason that we should perhaps even divest from big tech stock, even at a loss.
But if we’re in a situation where it doesn’t seem sensible to divest, then investing is probably also not so bad at the current margin.
I’m leaning towards thinking that investing is not so bad at the current margin, but I was surprised by the magnitude of the effect of divesting according to Paul Christiano’s analysis, so I could easily be wrong about that.