which have dropped by an order of magnitude every couple of years
This seems like a really important point, and I wonder if anyone has blogged on this particular topic yet. In particular:
How should we expect this trend to continue?
Does it increase the activation energy for getting involved in EA? (my interest in EA was first aroused by GW and how cheap they reckoned it was to save a life via VillageReach)
Does it affect the claim that a minority of charities are orders of magnitude more effective than the rest?
If we become able to put numbers to the effectiveness of a new area, such as xrisk or meta, would we expect to see the same exponential drop-off in our estimates even if we’re aware of this problem?
This seems like a really important point, and I wonder if anyone has blogged on this particular topic yet. In particular:
How should we expect this trend to continue?
Does it increase the activation energy for getting involved in EA? (my interest in EA was first aroused by GW and how cheap they reckoned it was to save a life via VillageReach)
Does it affect the claim that a minority of charities are orders of magnitude more effective than the rest?
If we become able to put numbers to the effectiveness of a new area, such as xrisk or meta, would we expect to see the same exponential drop-off in our estimates even if we’re aware of this problem?