Two considerations against waiting at all are that
the value of money in EA could decline by more than 16%/​year. One reason is that the total EA capital base has historically grown at over 30%/​year, EA is still building grantmaking capacity towards an optimal level of spending, and there are diminishing returns to money.
Yeah, I need to put more thought into exactly how long I want to wait, but currently I’m thinking 3 − 5 years max before donating, maybe sooner if I quickly become more confident in my cause prioritization decisions.
Two considerations against waiting at all are that
the value of money in EA could decline by more than 16%/​year. One reason is that the total EA capital base has historically grown at over 30%/​year, EA is still building grantmaking capacity towards an optimal level of spending, and there are diminishing returns to money.
Returns in the stock market are risky, and risk is important when you’re correlated with the rest of EA (the stock market has positive correlation with Facebook stock and probably FTX).
These might not apply if you think you can find highly effective causes that won’t be funded by large EA donors.
Yeah, I need to put more thought into exactly how long I want to wait, but currently I’m thinking 3 − 5 years max before donating, maybe sooner if I quickly become more confident in my cause prioritization decisions.