Executive summary: Assigning probabilities to uncertain future events, including AI existential risks, is valuable for communication, reasoning, and accountability, and can inform policy decisions despite limitations.
Key points:
Probabilities allow for more nuanced communication about expectations compared to vague language.
Probabilistic reasoning is useful even for events without clear reference classes, like AI risks or nuclear escalation.
Tracking changes in probability estimates over time provides valuable information as new evidence emerges.
Assigning probabilities helps identify key uncertainties and scenarios to avoid, which is crucial for policymakers.
Probabilistic forecasts allow for accountability by tracking who consistently makes accurate predictions about AI progress.
Expressing beliefs as probabilities complements other tools like scenario planning and qualitative predictions for policy discussions.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Assigning probabilities to uncertain future events, including AI existential risks, is valuable for communication, reasoning, and accountability, and can inform policy decisions despite limitations.
Key points:
Probabilities allow for more nuanced communication about expectations compared to vague language.
Probabilistic reasoning is useful even for events without clear reference classes, like AI risks or nuclear escalation.
Tracking changes in probability estimates over time provides valuable information as new evidence emerges.
Assigning probabilities helps identify key uncertainties and scenarios to avoid, which is crucial for policymakers.
Probabilistic forecasts allow for accountability by tracking who consistently makes accurate predictions about AI progress.
Expressing beliefs as probabilities complements other tools like scenario planning and qualitative predictions for policy discussions.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.