This seems to me to be another instance of the 1% fallacy (or the 0.1% fallacy, or the 10^-18 fallacy).
In your post, you talk about being skeptical of arguments where infinities cancel. I would argue that uncanceled infinities are generally a sign of a model being applied beyond its range of efficacy.
If you start off with a rough model and extrapolate it out to get a big enough number, all you have to do is come up with a set of conditions under which that number could plausibly be achieved, no matter how improbable. Then, say “Zero isn’t a probability, and you don’t have enough evidence to show that the probability cancels my big number.” from the start and suddenly you have a large expected value.
However, when you refine the model (considering higher order effects, more thoroughly treating counterfactuals, turning exponential curves into more accurate s-curves), the big number drops out.
The base rate for the infinite is 0. As a result, I am much more skeptical of models where infinities don’t cancel.
Could you please provide any concrete grounding for the probability of counterfactually shifting from extinction to a vast future (not delaying extinction temporarily) that is not based on a very small subjectively “conservative” probability?
This seems to me to be another instance of the 1% fallacy (or the 0.1% fallacy, or the 10^-18 fallacy).
In your post, you talk about being skeptical of arguments where infinities cancel. I would argue that uncanceled infinities are generally a sign of a model being applied beyond its range of efficacy.
If you start off with a rough model and extrapolate it out to get a big enough number, all you have to do is come up with a set of conditions under which that number could plausibly be achieved, no matter how improbable. Then, say “Zero isn’t a probability, and you don’t have enough evidence to show that the probability cancels my big number.” from the start and suddenly you have a large expected value.
However, when you refine the model (considering higher order effects, more thoroughly treating counterfactuals, turning exponential curves into more accurate s-curves), the big number drops out.
The base rate for the infinite is 0. As a result, I am much more skeptical of models where infinities don’t cancel.
Could you please provide any concrete grounding for the probability of counterfactually shifting from extinction to a vast future (not delaying extinction temporarily) that is not based on a very small subjectively “conservative” probability?