This is a good point I hadn’t considered. I’ve added a few rows calculating a marginal correction-factor to the google sheet and I’ll update the table if you think they’re sensible.
The new correction factor is based on integrating an exponentially decaying function from N_researchers to N_researchers+1, with the decay rate set by a question about the effect of halving the size of the AI alignment community. Make sure to expand the hidden rows in the doc if you want to see the calculations.
This is a good point I hadn’t considered. I’ve added a few rows calculating a marginal correction-factor to the google sheet and I’ll update the table if you think they’re sensible.
The new correction factor is based on integrating an exponentially decaying function from N_researchers to N_researchers+1, with the decay rate set by a question about the effect of halving the size of the AI alignment community. Make sure to expand the hidden rows in the doc if you want to see the calculations.