Yeah, I think that articulates a lot of my criticism of it. It seems like people generally aren’t very good at making guesses about probabilities of things in general so we shouldn’t expect that we can engage in “Bayesianism” in our head and magically create really good predictions.
Yeah, I think that articulates a lot of my criticism of it. It seems like people generally aren’t very good at making guesses about probabilities of things in general so we shouldn’t expect that we can engage in “Bayesianism” in our head and magically create really good predictions.