Bostrom estimates that a single percentage point of existential risk reduction yields the same expected value as advancing technological development by 10 million years
I didn’t recall this from Bostrom’s work and had to pause the video after hearing it to try to understand it better. I wish you had either explained the estimate or provided a footnote citation to the exact place viewers could find where Bostrom explains this estimate.
After thinking about it for a minute, my guess is that Bostrom’s estimate comes from a few assumptions: (a) Civilization reaches it’s full scale (value realized per year) in a very short amount of time relative to 10 million years and (b) Civilization lasts a billion years. Neither of these assumptions seem like a given to me, so if this is indeed where Bostrom’s (rough) estimate came from it would seem that you really ought to have explained it in the video or something. I imagine a lot of viewers might just gloss over it and not accept it.
I didn’t recall this from Bostrom’s work and had to pause the video after hearing it to try to understand it better. I wish you had either explained the estimate or provided a footnote citation to the exact place viewers could find where Bostrom explains this estimate.
After thinking about it for a minute, my guess is that Bostrom’s estimate comes from a few assumptions: (a) Civilization reaches it’s full scale (value realized per year) in a very short amount of time relative to 10 million years and (b) Civilization lasts a billion years. Neither of these assumptions seem like a given to me, so if this is indeed where Bostrom’s (rough) estimate came from it would seem that you really ought to have explained it in the video or something. I imagine a lot of viewers might just gloss over it and not accept it.