I can’t be understating the tail risks, because I made no claims about whether global warming poses existential risks. I wrote only that the IPCC’s latest synthesis report didn’t say that it does.
I thought that climate change obviously poses some existential risk, but probably not enough to merit the panic about it. Though Halstead’s report that you linked explicitly says not just that there’s no evidence of existential risk, but that his work gives evidence there is insignificant existential risk. I wouldn’t conclude “there is insignificant existential risk”, but it appears that risk lies more in “we overlooked something” than in evidence found.
The only thing I was confident of was that some people, including a member of Congress, incited panic by saying global warming was an imminent thread to the survival of humanity, and the citation chain led me back to that IPCC report, and nothing in it supported that claim.
Okay I guess you’re correct, your comment wasn’t stating your views, just the contents of the IPCC report.
I 100% agree with your reading of Halstead’s report -he’s very explicit that there’s evidence against climate change being an existential risk. I still think your original comment somewhat downplays the tail risk scenarios that are still considered plausible (e.g. from the tipping points section of Halstead’s report), but I agree that those aren’t actually likely extinction risks.
I think in general you and I are probably on the same page overall about climate risk and the extent to which we should be working on it in EA.
Thanks for the link to Halstead’s report!
I can’t be understating the tail risks, because I made no claims about whether global warming poses existential risks. I wrote only that the IPCC’s latest synthesis report didn’t say that it does.
I thought that climate change obviously poses some existential risk, but probably not enough to merit the panic about it. Though Halstead’s report that you linked explicitly says not just that there’s no evidence of existential risk, but that his work gives evidence there is insignificant existential risk. I wouldn’t conclude “there is insignificant existential risk”, but it appears that risk lies more in “we overlooked something” than in evidence found.
The only thing I was confident of was that some people, including a member of Congress, incited panic by saying global warming was an imminent thread to the survival of humanity, and the citation chain led me back to that IPCC report, and nothing in it supported that claim.
Okay I guess you’re correct, your comment wasn’t stating your views, just the contents of the IPCC report.
I 100% agree with your reading of Halstead’s report -he’s very explicit that there’s evidence against climate change being an existential risk. I still think your original comment somewhat downplays the tail risk scenarios that are still considered plausible (e.g. from the tipping points section of Halstead’s report), but I agree that those aren’t actually likely extinction risks.
I think in general you and I are probably on the same page overall about climate risk and the extent to which we should be working on it in EA.