Michael—I agree with your assessment here, both that the CEARCH report is very helpful and informative, but also that their estimated likelihood of nuclear (only 10% per century) seems much lower than seems reasonable, and much lower than other expert estimates that I’ve seen.
Just as a lot can happen in a century of AI development, a lot can happen over the next century that could increase the likelihood of nuclear war.
I just wanted to clarify your “likelihood of nuclear (only 10% per century [9.44 % = 1 - (1 − 9.91*10^-4)^100])” refers to a nuclear conflict with at least 100 nuclear detonations involving China, the US and Russia, not just to the chance of at least 1 nuclear detonation (which would be higher).
Vasco—understood. The estimate still seems much lower than most other credible estimates I’ve seen. And much lower than it felt when we were living through the 70s and 80s, and the Cold War was still very much a thing.
Michael—I agree with your assessment here, both that the CEARCH report is very helpful and informative, but also that their estimated likelihood of nuclear (only 10% per century) seems much lower than seems reasonable, and much lower than other expert estimates that I’ve seen.
Just as a lot can happen in a century of AI development, a lot can happen over the next century that could increase the likelihood of nuclear war.
Hi Geoffrey,
I just wanted to clarify your “likelihood of nuclear (only 10% per century [9.44 % = 1 - (1 − 9.91*10^-4)^100])” refers to a nuclear conflict with at least 100 nuclear detonations involving China, the US and Russia, not just to the chance of at least 1 nuclear detonation (which would be higher).
Vasco—understood. The estimate still seems much lower than most other credible estimates I’ve seen. And much lower than it felt when we were living through the 70s and 80s, and the Cold War was still very much a thing.