Thanks! :) After our conversation Owen jumped right into the write-up, and I pitched in with the javascript—it was fun to just charge ahead and execute a small idea like this.
It’s true that this calculator doesn’t take field-steering or paradigm-defining effects of early research into account, nor problems of inherent seriality vs parallelizable work. These might be interesting to incorporate into a future model, at some risk of over-complicating what will always be a pretty rough estimate.
Thanks! :) After our conversation Owen jumped right into the write-up, and I pitched in with the javascript—it was fun to just charge ahead and execute a small idea like this.
It’s true that this calculator doesn’t take field-steering or paradigm-defining effects of early research into account, nor problems of inherent seriality vs parallelizable work. These might be interesting to incorporate into a future model, at some risk of over-complicating what will always be a pretty rough estimate.