I think that’s contingent on the percentage of people who receive payments, and the ability to predict one’s likelihood of receipt. If GD gives money to the same people every flood season, then I would be much more concerned about this than if everyone in the flood zone knows they have a 5% chance of receiving money in any year their area was flooded.
If the question is whether the beneficiaries may be more likely to stay / underinvest / not take action once identified as conditional beneficiaries shortly before the flood—it didn’t sound like getting the payment was conditional on being in the flood zone when the flood actually hit. If you were pre-registered to location X earlier in the season, and location X was selected as a beneficiary site, it sounds like you got paid. If that’s true, one could argue for the opposite effect—evacuation can be pricey, last-minute flood defenses require resources, etc. So getting them money a few days ahead of the storm might enable better risk-mitigation measures. I’m thinking of the people in the US who didn’t leave before Hurricane Katrina due to lack of funds.
I think that’s contingent on the percentage of people who receive payments, and the ability to predict one’s likelihood of receipt. If GD gives money to the same people every flood season, then I would be much more concerned about this than if everyone in the flood zone knows they have a 5% chance of receiving money in any year their area was flooded.
If the question is whether the beneficiaries may be more likely to stay / underinvest / not take action once identified as conditional beneficiaries shortly before the flood—it didn’t sound like getting the payment was conditional on being in the flood zone when the flood actually hit. If you were pre-registered to location X earlier in the season, and location X was selected as a beneficiary site, it sounds like you got paid. If that’s true, one could argue for the opposite effect—evacuation can be pricey, last-minute flood defenses require resources, etc. So getting them money a few days ahead of the storm might enable better risk-mitigation measures. I’m thinking of the people in the US who didn’t leave before Hurricane Katrina due to lack of funds.