With collaborators, we outlined some other reasons to forecast research results here: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaz1704. In short, forecasts can help to evaluate the novelty of a result (a double-edged sword: very unexpected results are more likely to be suspect), mitigate publication bias against null results / provide an alternative null, and over time help to improve the accuracy of forecasting. There are other reasons, as well, like identifying which treatment to test or which outcome variables to focus on (which might have the highest VoI). In the long run, if forecasts are linked to RCT results, it could also help us say more about those situations for which we don’t have RCTs—but that’s a longer-term goal. If this is an area of interest, I’ve got a podcast episode, EA Global presentation and some other things in this vein… this is probably the most detailed.
I agree that there’s a lot of work in this area and decision makers actively interested in it. I’ll also add that there’s a lot of interest on the researcher side, which is key.
P.S. The SSPP is hiring web developers, if you know anyone who might be a good fit.
There’s also this https://socialscienceprediction.org/ which is similar
Thanks for mentioning the Social Science Prediction Platform! We had some interest from other sciences as well.
With collaborators, we outlined some other reasons to forecast research results here: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aaz1704. In short, forecasts can help to evaluate the novelty of a result (a double-edged sword: very unexpected results are more likely to be suspect), mitigate publication bias against null results / provide an alternative null, and over time help to improve the accuracy of forecasting. There are other reasons, as well, like identifying which treatment to test or which outcome variables to focus on (which might have the highest VoI). In the long run, if forecasts are linked to RCT results, it could also help us say more about those situations for which we don’t have RCTs—but that’s a longer-term goal. If this is an area of interest, I’ve got a podcast episode, EA Global presentation and some other things in this vein… this is probably the most detailed.
I agree that there’s a lot of work in this area and decision makers actively interested in it. I’ll also add that there’s a lot of interest on the researcher side, which is key.
P.S. The SSPP is hiring web developers, if you know anyone who might be a good fit.