Those seem like reasonable categories. I disagree with the antecedent but will rephrase your question as “what type of decline am I most worried about?”, the answer to which is “1″.
In particular: I think it’s possible that AI will be such a compelling issue that the intellectual excitement and labor moves away from cause-neutral EA to EA-flavored AI Safety. This is already happening a bit (and also happened with animal welfare); it doesn’t seem crazy to think that it will become a larger problem.
Those seem like reasonable categories. I disagree with the antecedent but will rephrase your question as “what type of decline am I most worried about?”, the answer to which is “1″.
In particular: I think it’s possible that AI will be such a compelling issue that the intellectual excitement and labor moves away from cause-neutral EA to EA-flavored AI Safety. This is already happening a bit (and also happened with animal welfare); it doesn’t seem crazy to think that it will become a larger problem.