Great series of posts, This Can’t Go On in particular has really stayed with me since first reading it a few years ago.
“I am forecasting more than a 10% chance transformative AI will be developed within 15 years (by 2036); a ~50% chance it will be developed within 40 years (by 2060); and a ~2/3 chance it will be developed this century (by 2100).”
I wonder how now, 3.5 years later, your forecasts have changed. To me, 10% by 2036 seems incredibly low now, given the AI progress since 2022.
Great series of posts, This Can’t Go On in particular has really stayed with me since first reading it a few years ago.
I wonder how now, 3.5 years later, your forecasts have changed. To me, 10% by 2036 seems incredibly low now, given the AI progress since 2022.