It depends how you interpret PA. I don’t think there is a standard view—it could be ‘maximise the aggregate lifetime utility of everyone currently existing’, in which case what you say would be true, or ‘maximise the happiness of everyone currently existing while they continue to do so’, which I think would turn out to be a form of averaging utilitarianism, and on which what you say would be false.
Good points, although I’m not sure who would hold averaging utilitarianism. But yes, in this case prolonging life wouldn’t matter.
Yes, but this was a comment about the desirability of public advocacy of longevity therapies rather than the desirability of longevity therapies themselves. It’s quite plausible that the latter is desirable and the former undesirable—perhaps enough so to outweigh the latter.
I doubt that the damages of public advocacy would outweigh the good. Only if advocacy is really good at convincing people of the possibility of bringing aging under medical control, the large-scale distress you mention could happen. But then aging would become an issue under the eyes of everyone and funding would immediately spike up, along with policies to accelerate the process. If this happens, the supposed psychological distress would be a rounding error if compared even only with additional DALYs prevented at the end of life. Otherwise, if advocacy manages to convince people of the possibility of putting aging under medical but doesn’t bring additional money and talent in research, then yes the psychological damage would probably outweigh the positive impact. But is this a possibility? I don’t think it’s possible to convince a large fraction of the population and at the same time not cause resources to pour in the field. Then you could argue that research could be so ineffective that pouring resources into it wouldn’t accelerate anything. But I think this has a very low probability. Note also that in expectation even a very small hastening of the field would outweigh psychological distress.
Your argument was that it’s bigger subject to its not reducing the birthrate and adding net population in the near future is good in the long run. Both are claims for which I think there’s a reasonable case, neither are claims that seem to have .75 probability (I would go lower for at least the second one, but YMMV). With a .44+ probability that one assumption is false, I think it matters a lot.
At worst the PA view and the impersonal view have the same effect, so “it matters a lot” seems exaggerated to me. A totally unrelated idea would be introducing a discounting of impact because of these considerations, but it still wouldn’t be advisable using expected value.
Again this is totally wrong. Technologies don’t just come along and make some predetermined set of changes then leave the world otherwise unchanged—they have hugely divergent effects based on the culture of the time and countless other factors. You might as well argue that if humanity hadn’t developed the atomic bomb until last year, the world would look identical to today’s except that Japan would have two fewer cities (and that in a few years, after they’d been rebuilt, it would look identical again).
I think you are right here, but I still don’t think most of the impact would come from the ripple effects that hastening aging research would have on the far future. We don’t even know if the effects will be good or bad. In my view they would be probably just cultural and neutral cost-effectiveness wise.
Good points, although I’m not sure who would hold averaging utilitarianism. But yes, in this case prolonging life wouldn’t matter.
I doubt that the damages of public advocacy would outweigh the good. Only if advocacy is really good at convincing people of the possibility of bringing aging under medical control, the large-scale distress you mention could happen. But then aging would become an issue under the eyes of everyone and funding would immediately spike up, along with policies to accelerate the process. If this happens, the supposed psychological distress would be a rounding error if compared even only with additional DALYs prevented at the end of life. Otherwise, if advocacy manages to convince people of the possibility of putting aging under medical but doesn’t bring additional money and talent in research, then yes the psychological damage would probably outweigh the positive impact. But is this a possibility? I don’t think it’s possible to convince a large fraction of the population and at the same time not cause resources to pour in the field. Then you could argue that research could be so ineffective that pouring resources into it wouldn’t accelerate anything. But I think this has a very low probability. Note also that in expectation even a very small hastening of the field would outweigh psychological distress.
At worst the PA view and the impersonal view have the same effect, so “it matters a lot” seems exaggerated to me. A totally unrelated idea would be introducing a discounting of impact because of these considerations, but it still wouldn’t be advisable using expected value.
I think you are right here, but I still don’t think most of the impact would come from the ripple effects that hastening aging research would have on the far future. We don’t even know if the effects will be good or bad. In my view they would be probably just cultural and neutral cost-effectiveness wise.