I’m also sympathetic to the argument, but I think the BOTEC overstates the potential benefit for another reason. If Givewell finds an opportunity to give $100 million per year at an effectiveness of 15x of cash transfers rather than 5x (and assuming there is a large supply of giving opportunities at 5x), I think the benefit is $200 million per year rather than $1 billion. The $100 million spent on the 15x intervention achieves what they could have achieved by spending $300 million on a 5x intervention. Of course, as noted, that is for only one year, so the number over a longer time horizon would be much larger.
Even with that adjustment, and considering the issues raised by David Manheim and other commenters, I find this post quite compelling – thank you for sharing it.
I’m also sympathetic to the argument, but I think the BOTEC overstates the potential benefit for another reason. If Givewell finds an opportunity to give $100 million per year at an effectiveness of 15x of cash transfers rather than 5x (and assuming there is a large supply of giving opportunities at 5x), I think the benefit is $200 million per year rather than $1 billion. The $100 million spent on the 15x intervention achieves what they could have achieved by spending $300 million on a 5x intervention. Of course, as noted, that is for only one year, so the number over a longer time horizon would be much larger.
Even with that adjustment, and considering the issues raised by David Manheim and other commenters, I find this post quite compelling – thank you for sharing it.