After writing this down, I’m seeing a possible response to the argument above:
If we observe that Alice and Bob had, in the past, made similar decisions under equivalent circumstances, then we can infer that:
There’s an above-baseline likelihood that Alice and Bob have similar source codes, and
There’s an above-baseline likelihood that Alice and Bob have correlated sources of randomness.
(where the “baseline” refers to our prior)
However:
It still rests on the non-trivial metaphysical claim that different “free wills” (i.e. different sources of randomness) could be correlated.
The extent to which we update our prior (on the likelihood of correlated inputs) might be small, especially if we consider it unlikely that inputs could be correlated. This may lead to a much smaller weight of superrational considerations in our decision-making.
After writing this down, I’m seeing a possible response to the argument above:
If we observe that Alice and Bob had, in the past, made similar decisions under equivalent circumstances, then we can infer that:
There’s an above-baseline likelihood that Alice and Bob have similar source codes, and
There’s an above-baseline likelihood that Alice and Bob have correlated sources of randomness.
(where the “baseline” refers to our prior)
However:
It still rests on the non-trivial metaphysical claim that different “free wills” (i.e. different sources of randomness) could be correlated.
The extent to which we update our prior (on the likelihood of correlated inputs) might be small, especially if we consider it unlikely that inputs could be correlated. This may lead to a much smaller weight of superrational considerations in our decision-making.