Executive summary: Even without transformative AI, GDP per capita forecasts suggest the world in 2050 will be radically different from today, with major implications for global welfare, values, culture, and AI development.
Key points:
By 2050, GDP per capita in China, India, Indonesia and other developing countries will grow dramatically, lifting billions out of poverty and shifting global economic power to Asia.
A richer world in 2050 will likely have lower birth rates, more democracy, greater gender equality and life satisfaction, and shifting values from traditionalist to secular-rational and self-expression.
Faster economic growth could substantially accelerate AI development by increasing the global research workforce and R&D spending. However, growth rates may also slow due to factors like aging populations.
While GDP is an imperfect welfare measure, it remains one of the best predictors. A richer world, even with slower GDP growth, could see large increases in total global welfare.
Key uncertainties include how growth will impact values and culture, whether growth will speed up or slow down, and how much it will accelerate AI development. More research is needed on these questions.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Even without transformative AI, GDP per capita forecasts suggest the world in 2050 will be radically different from today, with major implications for global welfare, values, culture, and AI development.
Key points:
By 2050, GDP per capita in China, India, Indonesia and other developing countries will grow dramatically, lifting billions out of poverty and shifting global economic power to Asia.
A richer world in 2050 will likely have lower birth rates, more democracy, greater gender equality and life satisfaction, and shifting values from traditionalist to secular-rational and self-expression.
Faster economic growth could substantially accelerate AI development by increasing the global research workforce and R&D spending. However, growth rates may also slow due to factors like aging populations.
While GDP is an imperfect welfare measure, it remains one of the best predictors. A richer world, even with slower GDP growth, could see large increases in total global welfare.
Key uncertainties include how growth will impact values and culture, whether growth will speed up or slow down, and how much it will accelerate AI development. More research is needed on these questions.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.