Nice example, I see where you’re going with that.
I share the intuition that the second case would be easier to get people motivated for, as it represents more of a confirmed loss.
However, as your example shows actually the first case could lead to an ‘in it together’ effect on co-ordination. Assuming the information is taken seriously. Which is hard as, in advance, this kind of situation could encourage a ‘roll the dice’ mentality.