I was a participant and largely endorse this comment.
one contributor to a lack of convergence was attrition of effort and incentives. By the time there was superforecaster-expert exchange, we’d been at it for months, and there weren’t requirements for forum activity (unlike the first team stage)
As the origin of that comment i should say other reasons for non-convergence are stronger, but the attrition thing contributed. E.g. biases both for experts to over-rate and supers to under-rate. I wonder also about the structure of engagement with strong team identities fomenting tribal stubbornness for both...
I was also a participant and have my own intuitions from my limited experience. I’ve had lots of great conversations with people where we both learned new things and updated our beliefs… But I don’t know that I’ve ever had one in an asynchronous comment thread format. Especially given the complexity of the topics, I’m just not sure that format was up to the task. During the whole tournament I found myself wanting to create a Discord server and set up calls to dig deeper into assumptions and disagreements. I totally understand the logistical challenges something like that would impose, as well as making it much harder to analyze the communication between participants, but my biggest open question after the tournament was how much better our outputs could have been with a richer collaboration environment.
I asked the original question to try and get at the intuitions of the researchers, having seen all of the data. They outline possible causes and directions for investigation in the paper, which is the right thing to do, but I’m still interested in what they believe happened this time.
I was a participant and largely endorse this comment.
As the origin of that comment i should say other reasons for non-convergence are stronger, but the attrition thing contributed. E.g. biases both for experts to over-rate and supers to under-rate. I wonder also about the structure of engagement with strong team identities fomenting tribal stubbornness for both...
I was also a participant and have my own intuitions from my limited experience. I’ve had lots of great conversations with people where we both learned new things and updated our beliefs… But I don’t know that I’ve ever had one in an asynchronous comment thread format. Especially given the complexity of the topics, I’m just not sure that format was up to the task. During the whole tournament I found myself wanting to create a Discord server and set up calls to dig deeper into assumptions and disagreements. I totally understand the logistical challenges something like that would impose, as well as making it much harder to analyze the communication between participants, but my biggest open question after the tournament was how much better our outputs could have been with a richer collaboration environment.
I asked the original question to try and get at the intuitions of the researchers, having seen all of the data. They outline possible causes and directions for investigation in the paper, which is the right thing to do, but I’m still interested in what they believe happened this time.