Is there any more information available about experts? This paragraph below (from page 10) appears to be the only description provided in the report:
“To recruit experts, we contacted organizations working on existential risk, relevant academic departments, and research labs at major universities and within companies operating in these spaces. We also advertised broadly, reaching participants with relevant experience via blogs and Twitter. We received hundreds of expressions of interest in participating in the tournament, and we screened these respondents for expertise, offering slots to respondents with the most expertise after a review of their backgrounds.[1] We selected 80 experts to participate in the tournament. Our final expert sample (N=80) included 32 AI experts, 15 “general” experts studying longrun risks to humanity, 12 biorisk experts, 12 nuclear experts, and 9 climate experts, categorized by the same independent analysts who selected participants. Our expert sample included well-published AI researchers from top-ranked industrial and academic research labs, graduate students with backgrounds in synthetic biology, and generalist existential risk researchers working at think tanks, among others. According to a self-reported survey, 44% of experts spent more than 200 hours working directly on causes related to existential risk in the previous year, compared to 11% of superforecasters. The sample drew heavily from the Effective Altruism (EA) community: about 42% of experts and 9% of superforecasters reported that they had attended an EA meetup. In this report, we separately present forecasts from domain experts and non-domain experts on each question.”
Footnote here from the original text: “Two independent analysts categorized applicants based on publication records and work history. When the analysts disagreed, a third independent rater resolved disagreement after a group discussion.”
Is there any more information available about experts? This paragraph below (from page 10) appears to be the only description provided in the report:
Footnote here from the original text: “Two independent analysts categorized applicants based on publication records and work history. When the analysts disagreed, a third independent rater resolved disagreement after a group discussion.”