Executive summary: The post outlines practical steps Rethink Priorities is taking to address risk and uncertainty in cause prioritization, including using multiple decision theories, quantifying more, and adopting transparent decision procedures.
Key points:
Rethink Priorities will incorporate multiple decision theories like expected value, weighted linear utility, and risk-weighted expected utility into modeling to identify robust options.
More rigorous quantification of probabilities, outcomes, and factors like returns and counterfactual impact will improve reasoning and tradeoffs.
Formal deliberative decision procedures will allow transparent navigation of uncertainty and aggregation of judgment.
Spreading bets and resources across plausible approaches may be advisable given deep rule uncertainty.
Practical improvements in modeling, quantification, and collective decision-making procedures aim to advance impartial cause prioritization.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: The post outlines practical steps Rethink Priorities is taking to address risk and uncertainty in cause prioritization, including using multiple decision theories, quantifying more, and adopting transparent decision procedures.
Key points:
Rethink Priorities will incorporate multiple decision theories like expected value, weighted linear utility, and risk-weighted expected utility into modeling to identify robust options.
More rigorous quantification of probabilities, outcomes, and factors like returns and counterfactual impact will improve reasoning and tradeoffs.
Formal deliberative decision procedures will allow transparent navigation of uncertainty and aggregation of judgment.
Spreading bets and resources across plausible approaches may be advisable given deep rule uncertainty.
Practical improvements in modeling, quantification, and collective decision-making procedures aim to advance impartial cause prioritization.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.