I really appreciate this post, thanks for sharing it (and welcome to the Forum)!
Some aspects I want to highlight:
The project — trying to translate the known (or assumed) harms from child marriage into the metrics used by related projects that might work on the issue — seems really valuable
Noticing that a key assumption falls through and sharing this is great. I’d love to see more of this
The post also outlines some learnings from the experience
Write out key assumptions and test them / look for things that disprove them
Avoid trusting consensus
Get accountability / find someone to report to
I also like that there isn’t the sense that this is the last word on whether working on child marriage is a promising cause area or not — this is an in-progress write-up (see “updated positions and next steps”) and doesn’t shy away from the fact
Quick notes on the model — I’d be interested in your answers to some questions in the comments (Jeff’s, this one that asks in part about the relationship between economic growth (and growth-supporting work) and this issue, etc.).
“In each study country, we tested four approaches: 1) community sensitization to address social norms, 2) provision of school supplies to encourage retention in school, 3) a conditional asset transfer to girls and their families, and 4) one study area that included all the approaches.”
I’m immediately a bit worried that estimating the impact of these programs is more messy if e.g. one of the harms that stem from child marriage that you track is a loss in education (or loss in nutrition or something) — as presumably e.g. the school supplies program also just directly supports education (so there’s potentially some double-counting).
(I’m also wondering if, assuming that education delays marriage, more effective education-support programs, like iron supplementation, are just the way to go here.)
In general, it seems like there might be a bit of circularity (or, alternatively, loss of information)q if we do something like: “ok, these interventions, which we evaluate on a given factor — how much they delay (child) marriage — are effective to [this degree] at achieving the particular thing we’re measuring, which we think is important for [a number of factors
I made a sketch to try to explain my worry about the models (and some alternative approaches I’ve seen) — it’s a very rough sketch, but I’d be curious for takes.
5. Thanks for sharing those links. a) No I had not seen that! I did not know that any EA orgs had done a profile on this issue. b) Great to know about those threads, I am exciting to read and learn more in this space.
Thanks for visualising this, I found it useful. I think that I need to better understand what the harms are and how they are caused to evaluate the best model.
Right now, the third model makes most sense to me. This is because the negative outcomes associated with child marriage occur outside of child marriage as well and it would be better to address the outcome as a whole, not just where it is happening in the context of child marriage.
I really appreciate this post, thanks for sharing it (and welcome to the Forum)!
Some aspects I want to highlight:
The project — trying to translate the known (or assumed) harms from child marriage into the metrics used by related projects that might work on the issue — seems really valuable
Noticing that a key assumption falls through and sharing this is great. I’d love to see more of this
The post also outlines some learnings from the experience
Write out key assumptions and test them / look for things that disprove them
Avoid trusting consensus
Get accountability / find someone to report to
I also like that there isn’t the sense that this is the last word on whether working on child marriage is a promising cause area or not — this is an in-progress write-up (see “updated positions and next steps”) and doesn’t shy away from the fact
And there’s an “if you find this interesting, you may also like” section! I’m curious if you’ve seen:
Giving What We Can’s report from 2014 on this issue? (And the associated page, which also seems pretty outdated.)
Introducing Lafiya Nigeria and the Women’s health and welfare and Family planning topic pages.
Quick notes on the model — I’d be interested in your answers to some questions in the comments (Jeff’s, this one that asks in part about the relationship between economic growth (and growth-supporting work) and this issue, etc.).
I skimmed this report on some programs, and in case anyone is interested, it seems:
“In each study country, we tested four approaches: 1) community sensitization to address social norms, 2) provision of school supplies to encourage retention in school, 3) a conditional asset transfer to girls and their families, and 4) one study area that included all the approaches.”
I’m immediately a bit worried that estimating the impact of these programs is more messy if e.g. one of the harms that stem from child marriage that you track is a loss in education (or loss in nutrition or something) — as presumably e.g. the school supplies program also just directly supports education (so there’s potentially some double-counting).
(I’m also wondering if, assuming that education delays marriage, more effective education-support programs, like iron supplementation, are just the way to go here.)
In general, it seems like there might be a bit of circularity (or, alternatively, loss of information)q if we do something like: “ok, these interventions, which we evaluate on a given factor — how much they delay (child) marriage — are effective to [this degree] at achieving the particular thing we’re measuring, which we think is important for [a number of factors
I made a sketch to try to explain my worry about the models (and some alternative approaches I’ve seen) — it’s a very rough sketch, but I’d be curious for takes.
1-4. Thanks for the positive feedback Lizka 🙂
5. Thanks for sharing those links.
a) No I had not seen that! I did not know that any EA orgs had done a profile on this issue.
b) Great to know about those threads, I am exciting to read and learn more in this space.
Thanks for visualising this, I found it useful. I think that I need to better understand what the harms are and how they are caused to evaluate the best model.
Right now, the third model makes most sense to me. This is because the negative outcomes associated with child marriage occur outside of child marriage as well and it would be better to address the outcome as a whole, not just where it is happening in the context of child marriage.