Hi Karthik, thanks for engaging with my post. I think my post expresses two things:
a) the shock at finding evidence late into the project that had the potential to undermine other findings
b) my updated my position in light of new evidence.
I think I may have accidentally over-expressed a) to demonstrate the importance of looking for evidence that disagrees with positions early when researching topics. To clarify, my position now is definitely not that child marriage is not harmful.
My updated position is that the range of metrics across which child marriage is definitely and reliably harmful is narrowed. Unfortunately, with mixed and noisy results it is hard to know what is poor research design and what is lack of effect size. I still think that at the end of this project I will find that there is a good case that child marriage should be prevented, based on metrics I have not looked at yet, physical violence and the likelihood that girls will complete less school.
If I was trying to determine whether child marriage was harmful or not harmful, I would probably come back with a clear yes. But I have focused on exactly working out what exactly what harms are taking place because it has implications for the interventions that would be most effective, e.g. whether we focus on delaying the age of marriage to later teenage years because younger marriages are a lot worse or ending all marriages under 18 because all child marriages are equally harmful.
I take your point on the use of contraception, I do not know the rates of sexual activity in marriages or outside for these populations, but I would assume girls in marriages are having more sex, earlier.
I will further consider your view that perhaps I have not weighted my prior beliefs highly enough. I think I am hesitant about these views because I know that beliefs about when someone should get married and have children are very culturally determined, e.g. my grandmother got married at 19, which is shockingingly young to me, but was normal and what she wanted at the time.
Hi Karthik, thanks for engaging with my post. I think my post expresses two things:
a) the shock at finding evidence late into the project that had the potential to undermine other findings
b) my updated my position in light of new evidence.
I think I may have accidentally over-expressed a) to demonstrate the importance of looking for evidence that disagrees with positions early when researching topics. To clarify, my position now is definitely not that child marriage is not harmful.
My updated position is that the range of metrics across which child marriage is definitely and reliably harmful is narrowed. Unfortunately, with mixed and noisy results it is hard to know what is poor research design and what is lack of effect size. I still think that at the end of this project I will find that there is a good case that child marriage should be prevented, based on metrics I have not looked at yet, physical violence and the likelihood that girls will complete less school.
If I was trying to determine whether child marriage was harmful or not harmful, I would probably come back with a clear yes. But I have focused on exactly working out what exactly what harms are taking place because it has implications for the interventions that would be most effective, e.g. whether we focus on delaying the age of marriage to later teenage years because younger marriages are a lot worse or ending all marriages under 18 because all child marriages are equally harmful.
I take your point on the use of contraception, I do not know the rates of sexual activity in marriages or outside for these populations, but I would assume girls in marriages are having more sex, earlier.
I will further consider your view that perhaps I have not weighted my prior beliefs highly enough. I think I am hesitant about these views because I know that beliefs about when someone should get married and have children are very culturally determined, e.g. my grandmother got married at 19, which is shockingingly young to me, but was normal and what she wanted at the time.