I think it’s worth mentioning that what you’ve said is not in conflict with a much-reduced-but-still-astronomically-large Charlemagne Effect: you’ve set an upper bound for the longterm effects of nearterm lives saved at <<<2 billion years, but that still leaves a lot of room for nearterm interventions to have very large long term effects by increasing future population size.
That argument refers to the exponential version of the Charlemagne Effect; but the logistic one survives the physical bounds argument. OP writes that they don’t consider the logistic calculation of their Charlemagne Effect totally damning, particularly if it takes a long time for population to stabilise:
However, note that even in the models where the Charlemagne Effect weakens, it is not necessarily completely irrelevant. In the logistic model I created, the Charlemagne Effect is about 10,000 times less strong — but on the humongous scales of future people, this wouldn’t necessarily disqualify TNIs from competition with TLIs. Under future population scenarios with a carrying capacity, the Charlemagne Effect will be disproportionately weaker the sooner we either reach or start oscillating around a carrying capacity.
If that happens in the very early days of humanity’s future (e.g. 10% or less of the way through), then the Charlemagne Effect will be much less important. But if it happens later, then the Charlemagne Effect will have mattered for a large chunk of our future and thus be important for our future as a whole.
I think it’s worth mentioning that what you’ve said is not in conflict with a much-reduced-but-still-astronomically-large Charlemagne Effect: you’ve set an upper bound for the longterm effects of nearterm lives saved at <<<2 billion years, but that still leaves a lot of room for nearterm interventions to have very large long term effects by increasing future population size.
That argument refers to the exponential version of the Charlemagne Effect; but the logistic one survives the physical bounds argument. OP writes that they don’t consider the logistic calculation of their Charlemagne Effect totally damning, particularly if it takes a long time for population to stabilise: