I really like these kinds of write-ups that provide a rough calculation of the cost-effectiveness of altruistic actions! A point I would like to poke at is the conclusion that if there’s a 1⁄3 chance of your blood being used in a (fatal) surgery, you should attribute 1⁄3 * your share of the blood used of a life saved. This isn’t counterfactual reasoning, which I think is the best way to go about analyzing this. When deciding, on the margin, whether I should donate blood or not, I should try to figure out what the expected consequences are if I donate as compared to me not donating.
My guess is that, in developed countries, it’s extremely rare that people die during surgery because of a lack of blood units available at the hospital.
I really like these kinds of write-ups that provide a rough calculation of the cost-effectiveness of altruistic actions! A point I would like to poke at is the conclusion that if there’s a 1⁄3 chance of your blood being used in a (fatal) surgery, you should attribute 1⁄3 * your share of the blood used of a life saved. This isn’t counterfactual reasoning, which I think is the best way to go about analyzing this. When deciding, on the margin, whether I should donate blood or not, I should try to figure out what the expected consequences are if I donate as compared to me not donating.
My guess is that, in developed countries, it’s extremely rare that people die during surgery because of a lack of blood units available at the hospital.