I think the main reasons that EAs are working on AI stuff over bio stuff is that there aren’t many good routes into worst case bio work afaict largely due to infohazard concerns from field building, and the x-risk case for biorisk not being very compelling (maybe due to infohazard concerns around threat models).
I think these are fair points, I agree the info hazard stuff has smothered a lot of talent development and field building, and I agree the case for x-risk from misaligned advanced AI is more compelling. At the same time, I don’t talk to a lot of EAs and people in the broader ecosystem these days who are laser focused on extinction over GCR, that seems like a small subset of the community. So I expect various social effects, making a bunch more money, and AI being really cool and interesting and fast-moving are probably a bigger deal than x-risk compellingness simpliciter. Or at least they have had a bigger effect on my choices!
But insufficiently successful talent development / salience / comms is probably the biggest thing, I agree.
I think the main reasons that EAs are working on AI stuff over bio stuff is that there aren’t many good routes into worst case bio work afaict largely due to infohazard concerns from field building, and the x-risk case for biorisk not being very compelling (maybe due to infohazard concerns around threat models).
I think these are fair points, I agree the info hazard stuff has smothered a lot of talent development and field building, and I agree the case for x-risk from misaligned advanced AI is more compelling. At the same time, I don’t talk to a lot of EAs and people in the broader ecosystem these days who are laser focused on extinction over GCR, that seems like a small subset of the community. So I expect various social effects, making a bunch more money, and AI being really cool and interesting and fast-moving are probably a bigger deal than x-risk compellingness simpliciter. Or at least they have had a bigger effect on my choices!
But insufficiently successful talent development / salience / comms is probably the biggest thing, I agree.