Instead, task a specific, identifiable agency with enforcing posterity impact statements. If their judgements are unreasonable, contradictory, or inconsistent, then there is a specific agency head that can be fired and replaced instead of a vast and unmanageable judiciary.
I’ve noticed this distinction become relevant a few times now: between wide, department-spanning regulation / intiatives on one hand; and fociused offices / people / agencies / departments with a narrow, specific remit on the other. I have in mind that the ‘wide’ category involves checking for compliance with some desiderata, and stopping or modifying existing plans if they don’t; while the ‘focused’ category involves figuring out how to proactively achieve some goal, sometimes by building something new in the world.
Examples of the ‘wide’ category are NEPA (and other laws / regulation where basically anyone can sue); or new impact assessments required for a wide range of projects, such as the ‘future generations impact assessment’ proposal from the Wellbeing of Future Generations Bill (page 7 of this PDF).
I think my examples show a bias towards the ‘focused and proactive’ category but the ‘wide regulation’ category obviously is sometimes very useful; even necessary. Maybe one thought is that concrete projects should often precede wide regulation, and wide regulation often does best when it’s specific and legible (i.e. requiring that a specific safety-promoting technology is installed in new builds). We don’t mind regulation that requires smoke alarms and sprinklers, because they work and they are worth the money. It’s possible to imagine focused projects to drive down costs of e.g. sequencing and sterilisation tech, and then maybe following up with regulation which requires specific tech be installed to clear standards, enforced by a specific agency.
Though one thing I should have mentioned explicitly in the post is that being illegible and distributed is only one of the failure modes of regulation, but certainly not the only one. For example, many US cities have building height limits which economists have estimated are causing billions in deadweight loss, higher rents, etc. But a building height limit is very legible and clear. Still, somehow the relevant government bodies are often too captured by concentrated activist groups and don’t consider expected value on the broader public.
Btw, I think The Power Broker is an interesting book to read regarding focused projects. There are many legitimate criticisms of Robert Moses, but still it is remarkable how he basically built a startup within the NY government that was much more competent, efficient, and visionary than the rest of the political system.
It’s possible to imagine focused projects to drive down costs of e.g. sequencing and sterilisation tech, and then maybe following up with regulation which requires specific tech be installed to clear standards, enforced by a specific agency.
Is there a good read regarding regulatory proposals for these technologies in particular? I worry that wide regulation around sequencing in particular might slow down tech that I think will be good, like CRISPR therapies or embryo selection. Or maybe that’s a category error?
Just skimming the subjects, I can tell that this will be the best interview of him I’ve seen so far, congratulations on getting him on. I am now a subscriber, and listening.
If you post another interview of him I will buy a sub on your substack for sure
Thanks Dwarkesh, really enjoyed this.
This section stood out to me:
I’ve noticed this distinction become relevant a few times now: between wide, department-spanning regulation / intiatives on one hand; and fociused offices / people / agencies / departments with a narrow, specific remit on the other. I have in mind that the ‘wide’ category involves checking for compliance with some desiderata, and stopping or modifying existing plans if they don’t; while the ‘focused’ category involves figuring out how to proactively achieve some goal, sometimes by building something new in the world.
Examples of the ‘wide’ category are NEPA (and other laws / regulation where basically anyone can sue); or new impact assessments required for a wide range of projects, such as the ‘future generations impact assessment’ proposal from the Wellbeing of Future Generations Bill (page 7 of this PDF).
Examples of the ‘focused’ category are the Office of Technology Assessment, the Spaceguard Survey Report, or something like the American Pandemic Preparedness Plan (even without the funding it deserves).
I think my examples show a bias towards the ‘focused and proactive’ category but the ‘wide regulation’ category obviously is sometimes very useful; even necessary. Maybe one thought is that concrete projects should often precede wide regulation, and wide regulation often does best when it’s specific and legible (i.e. requiring that a specific safety-promoting technology is installed in new builds). We don’t mind regulation that requires smoke alarms and sprinklers, because they work and they are worth the money. It’s possible to imagine focused projects to drive down costs of e.g. sequencing and sterilisation tech, and then maybe following up with regulation which requires specific tech be installed to clear standards, enforced by a specific agency.
Great point Fin!
Though one thing I should have mentioned explicitly in the post is that being illegible and distributed is only one of the failure modes of regulation, but certainly not the only one. For example, many US cities have building height limits which economists have estimated are causing billions in deadweight loss, higher rents, etc. But a building height limit is very legible and clear. Still, somehow the relevant government bodies are often too captured by concentrated activist groups and don’t consider expected value on the broader public.
Btw, I think The Power Broker is an interesting book to read regarding focused projects. There are many legitimate criticisms of Robert Moses, but still it is remarkable how he basically built a startup within the NY government that was much more competent, efficient, and visionary than the rest of the political system.
Is there a good read regarding regulatory proposals for these technologies in particular? I worry that wide regulation around sequencing in particular might slow down tech that I think will be good, like CRISPR therapies or embryo selection. Or maybe that’s a category error?
Almost any intervention that slows down embryo selection is a net negative for the world, regardless of what other positives come along with it.
Embryo selection is probably the highest ROI cause for EA around, and it’s possible right now, it is crazy that Hsu is not getting more attention.
I agree! Not sure if you saw my interview of Steve Hsu on my podcast, where we get deep into the weeds on embryo selection: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/steve-hsu
You got him to talk about the gwern analysis!
Just skimming the subjects, I can tell that this will be the best interview of him I’ve seen so far, congratulations on getting him on. I am now a subscriber, and listening.
If you post another interview of him I will buy a sub on your substack for sure
Don’t have paid subs, but thank you! Glad you enjoyed!