That would require building in further assumptions, like a clip of the results at 100%. We would probably want to do that, but it struck me in thinking about this that it is easy to miss when working in a model like this. It is a bit counterintuitive that lowering the lower bound of a log normal distributions can increase the mean.
That would require building in further assumptions, like a clip of the results at 100%. We would probably want to do that, but it struck me in thinking about this that it is easy to miss when working in a model like this. It is a bit counterintuitive that lowering the lower bound of a log normal distributions can increase the mean.