Before I continue, I want to thank you for being patient and working with me on this. I think people are making decisions based on these figures so it’s important to be able to replicate them.
I appreciate that you’re taking a close look at this and not just taking our word for it. It isn’t inconceivable that we made an error somewhere in the model, and if no one pays close attention it would never get fixed. Nevertheless, it seems to me like we’re making progress toward getting the same results.
Total DALYs averted:
4.47274/(36524) = 0.14 disabling DALYS averted
0.152259/(36524) = 0.0386 hurtful DALYS averted
0.015* 4645/(365*24) =0.00795 hurtful Dalys averted
Total is about 0.19 DALY’s averted per hen per year.
I take it that the leftmost numbers are the weights for the different pains? If so, the numbers are slightly different from the numbers in the model. I see an average weight of about 6 for disabling pain, 0.16 for hurtful pain, and 0.015 for annoying pain. This works out to ~0.23 in total. Where are your numbers coming from?
No worries, and I have finally managed to replicate Laura’s results, and find the true source of disagreement. The key factor missing was the period of egg laying: I put in ~1 year year for both Caged and uncaged, as is assumed on the site that provided the hours of pain figures. This 1 year of laying period assumption seems to match with other sources. Whereas in the causal model, the caged length of laying is given as 1.62 years, and the cage free length of laying is given as 1.19 years. The causal model appears to have tried to calculate this, but it makes more sense to me to use the site that measured the pains estimate: I feel they made they measurements, they are unlikely to be 150% off, and we should be comparing like with like here.
When I took this into account, I was able to replicate Lauras results, which I have summarised in this google doc, which also contains my own estimate and another analysis for broilers, as well as the sources for all the figures.
My DALY weights were using the geometric means (I wasn’t sure how to deal with lognormal), but switching to regular averages like you suggest makes things match better.
Under lauras laying period, my final estimate is 3742 Chicken-Dalys/thousand dollars, matching well with the causal number of 3.5k (given i’m not using distributions). Discounting this by the 0.332 figure from moral weights (this includes sentience estimates, right?) gives a final DALY’s per thousand of 1242 (or 1162 if we use the 3.5k figure directly)
Under my laying period figures, the final estimate is 6352 Chicken-Dalys/thousand, which discounted by the RP moral weights comes to 2108 DALYs/thousand dollars. A similar analysis for broilers gives 1500 chicken-dalys per thousand dollars and 506 DALY’s per thousand dollars.
The default values from the cross cause website should match with either Laura’s or mines estimates.
I appreciate that you’re taking a close look at this and not just taking our word for it. It isn’t inconceivable that we made an error somewhere in the model, and if no one pays close attention it would never get fixed. Nevertheless, it seems to me like we’re making progress toward getting the same results.
I take it that the leftmost numbers are the weights for the different pains? If so, the numbers are slightly different from the numbers in the model. I see an average weight of about 6 for disabling pain, 0.16 for hurtful pain, and 0.015 for annoying pain. This works out to ~0.23 in total. Where are your numbers coming from?
No worries, and I have finally managed to replicate Laura’s results, and find the true source of disagreement. The key factor missing was the period of egg laying: I put in ~1 year year for both Caged and uncaged, as is assumed on the site that provided the hours of pain figures. This 1 year of laying period assumption seems to match with other sources. Whereas in the causal model, the caged length of laying is given as 1.62 years, and the cage free length of laying is given as 1.19 years. The causal model appears to have tried to calculate this, but it makes more sense to me to use the site that measured the pains estimate: I feel they made they measurements, they are unlikely to be 150% off, and we should be comparing like with like here.
When I took this into account, I was able to replicate Lauras results, which I have summarised in this google doc, which also contains my own estimate and another analysis for broilers, as well as the sources for all the figures.
My DALY weights were using the geometric means (I wasn’t sure how to deal with lognormal), but switching to regular averages like you suggest makes things match better.
Under lauras laying period, my final estimate is 3742 Chicken-Dalys/thousand dollars, matching well with the causal number of 3.5k (given i’m not using distributions). Discounting this by the 0.332 figure from moral weights (this includes sentience estimates, right?) gives a final DALY’s per thousand of 1242 (or 1162 if we use the 3.5k figure directly)
Under my laying period figures, the final estimate is 6352 Chicken-Dalys/thousand, which discounted by the RP moral weights comes to 2108 DALYs/thousand dollars. A similar analysis for broilers gives 1500 chicken-dalys per thousand dollars and 506 DALY’s per thousand dollars.
The default values from the cross cause website should match with either Laura’s or mines estimates.