hey sorry for reopening but very curious to get your take on this:
Say you have been asked to evaluate the overall[1] utilitarian impact of the very first Christianity-spreaders during the first century AD (like Paul the Apostle) on the world until now (independently of their intention ofc). You have perfect information on what’s causally counterfactually related to their actions. How much of their impact (whether good or bad) is on beings between 0 and 200 VS. on beings between 200 and now? (making your usual assumptions you specifically make about nematodes and stuff; don’t take anyone else’s perspective.)
If mostly the former, how do you explain that?
If mostly the latter, what’s the difference between their ex post impact and yours? Why is most of their ex post impact longtermist-ish while yours would be neartermist? Why would, e.g., most of the people helping nematodes, thanks to you (including very indirectly through your influence on others before them) be concentrated within the next hundred years?
No worries, Jim! Feel free to ask questions like this any time.
I would model the impact of the very 1st Christianity-spreaders as speeding up some changes that would happen anyway a few decades to a century later. I guess most of their impact was before the year 200. The answer for me does not depend on whether one accounts for only humans, or all potential beings, or whether Christianity lasts 3 k or 3 M years. The theory of relativity could remain relevant for centuries (even if as an approximation), but I guess Albert Einstein still only accelerated the knowledge about it by a few years to decades. Both the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 only affected real gross world product (GWP) for 3 years or so (approximate time until returning to the original trajectory).
You may be interested in my chat with Matthew Adelstein. We discussed my scepticism about longtermism.
Thanks for the interesting questions too, Jim!
hey sorry for reopening but very curious to get your take on this:
Say you have been asked to evaluate the overall[1] utilitarian impact of the very first Christianity-spreaders during the first century AD (like Paul the Apostle) on the world until now (independently of their intention ofc). You have perfect information on what’s causally counterfactually related to their actions. How much of their impact (whether good or bad) is on beings between 0 and 200 VS. on beings between 200 and now? (making your usual assumptions you specifically make about nematodes and stuff; don’t take anyone else’s perspective.)
If mostly the former, how do you explain that?
If mostly the latter, what’s the difference between their ex post impact and yours? Why is most of their ex post impact longtermist-ish while yours would be neartermist? Why would, e.g., most of the people helping nematodes, thanks to you (including very indirectly through your influence on others before them) be concentrated within the next hundred years?
I.e., factoring in nematodes and stuff.
No worries, Jim! Feel free to ask questions like this any time.
I would model the impact of the very 1st Christianity-spreaders as speeding up some changes that would happen anyway a few decades to a century later. I guess most of their impact was before the year 200. The answer for me does not depend on whether one accounts for only humans, or all potential beings, or whether Christianity lasts 3 k or 3 M years. The theory of relativity could remain relevant for centuries (even if as an approximation), but I guess Albert Einstein still only accelerated the knowledge about it by a few years to decades. Both the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 only affected real gross world product (GWP) for 3 years or so (approximate time until returning to the original trajectory).
You may be interested in my chat with Matthew Adelstein. We discussed my scepticism about longtermism.