Executive summary: Climate anomalies, often caused by volcanic eruptions, are strongly linked with societal crisis and collapse throughout history. Climate shifts can trigger declines in agricultural output, famines, disease, and conflict.
Key points:
Volcanic eruptions causing climate changes are the main driver of climate anomalies.
These anomalies lead to crop failure, famine, disease, and population decline in a predictable order.
Statistical models show tight linkage between climate shifts, grain prices, and stability of societies over time.
Theoretical models explain how climate stress can push complex societies from one “attractor state” to another, with collapse as one possible transition.
More formal modeling is still needed to fully capture the dynamics between climate, food systems, disease, and societal resilience.
We may be able to detect coming “tipping points” in societies using leading indicators like critical slowing down.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Climate anomalies, often caused by volcanic eruptions, are strongly linked with societal crisis and collapse throughout history. Climate shifts can trigger declines in agricultural output, famines, disease, and conflict.
Key points:
Volcanic eruptions causing climate changes are the main driver of climate anomalies.
These anomalies lead to crop failure, famine, disease, and population decline in a predictable order.
Statistical models show tight linkage between climate shifts, grain prices, and stability of societies over time.
Theoretical models explain how climate stress can push complex societies from one “attractor state” to another, with collapse as one possible transition.
More formal modeling is still needed to fully capture the dynamics between climate, food systems, disease, and societal resilience.
We may be able to detect coming “tipping points” in societies using leading indicators like critical slowing down.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.