There aresome similar questions on Metaculus, which I think is good, but I do not trust their forecasts. I believe the ones for extreme events like human extinction are insensitive to small probabilities, and that detailed quantitative modelling would correct for this. I estimated a nearterm annual risk of human extinction from:
Nuclear war of 5.93*10^-12, which is only 1.19*10^-6 (= 5.93*10^-12/​(5*10^-6)) of the 5*10^-6 that I understand Toby Ord guessed in The Precipice.
Supervolcanoes of 3.38*10^-14, which is only 6.76*10^-8 (= 3.38*10^-14/​(5*10^-7)) of the 5*10^-7 that I understand Toby guessed in The Precipice.
There are some similar questions on Metaculus, which I think is good, but I do not trust their forecasts. I believe the ones for extreme events like human extinction are insensitive to small probabilities, and that detailed quantitative modelling would correct for this. I estimated a nearterm annual risk of human extinction from:
Nuclear war of 5.93*10^-12, which is only 1.19*10^-6 (= 5.93*10^-12/​(5*10^-6)) of the 5*10^-6 that I understand Toby Ord guessed in The Precipice.
Supervolcanoes of 3.38*10^-14, which is only 6.76*10^-8 (= 3.38*10^-14/​(5*10^-7)) of the 5*10^-7 that I understand Toby guessed in The Precipice.