I agree that most GHD donors don’t consciously conceive of things as I’ve suggested. But I think the most coherent idealization of their preferences would lead in the direction I’m suggesting. It’s even possible that they are subconsciously (and imperfectly) tracking something like my suggestion. It would be interesting to see whether most accept or reject the idea that fetal anesthesia or (say) elder care are “relevantly similar” to saving children. Since metrics like QALYs (esp. for young people) and income-doublings correlate strongly with capacity growth, I don’t take them to be evidence either way.
I also agree that my suggested reconceptualization could lead to some broader changes to the GHD portfolio, though it’s important not to forget the “robust” part of it. If you have a pessimistic prior about narrowly-targeted attempts to improve the long-term future, general improvements to human health, education, and economic growth seem like a pretty natural alternative to me.
But I’m afraid I’ve gotten pretty far astray from the topic of your original post! I’ve drafted up an attempt to explain my views on EA “cause buckets” more fully, and will aim to post it tomorrow. [Update: here!] Thanks again for the stimulating discussion.
Thanks, this has been a helpful discussion.
I agree that most GHD donors don’t consciously conceive of things as I’ve suggested. But I think the most coherent idealization of their preferences would lead in the direction I’m suggesting. It’s even possible that they are subconsciously (and imperfectly) tracking something like my suggestion. It would be interesting to see whether most accept or reject the idea that fetal anesthesia or (say) elder care are “relevantly similar” to saving children. Since metrics like QALYs (esp. for young people) and income-doublings correlate strongly with capacity growth, I don’t take them to be evidence either way.
I also agree that my suggested reconceptualization could lead to some broader changes to the GHD portfolio, though it’s important not to forget the “robust” part of it. If you have a pessimistic prior about narrowly-targeted attempts to improve the long-term future, general improvements to human health, education, and economic growth seem like a pretty natural alternative to me.
But I’m afraid I’ve gotten pretty far astray from the topic of your original post! I’ve drafted up an attempt to explain my views on EA “cause buckets” more fully, and will aim to post it tomorrow. [Update: here!] Thanks again for the stimulating discussion.