Somehow, a mental model of him that appears reasonably compatible with a lot of his actions and this interview is ~ “he always does or says what he thinks is locally and situationally optimal in terms of presenting himself, but never considers any more macro or long-term picture, or even consistency or consequences”.
He almost appears surprised by how far this has gotten him? Based on this, I would not believe anything he says here (or in general)?
I think that a part of this perception is created by him actively framing his actions in a way compatible with a ‘press secretary model of the human mind’ (cf. “Why everyone (else) is a hypocrite”).
My impression is that he does consciously notice a mistake, and is shaken to some degree. In distancing himself from the aspects of his thinking which led to this mistake, he treats his motivations as more clear-cut than they truly were and pushes against them. If that story were the full truth, he would not have given these answers which are basically the opposite of “locally and situationally optimal in terms of presenting himself”.
I think that we would make a mistake in thinking “well, clearly SBF was a bad person all along, so I and other EAs will not end up making structurally similar mistakes anyway” (I am not trying to imply that this is what you said/think and only add this for completeness). Regarding lessons on a community level, I think that much of the discussion on the Forum in the recent days makes a lot of sense.
Somehow, a mental model of him that appears reasonably compatible with a lot of his actions and this interview is ~ “he always does or says what he thinks is locally and situationally optimal in terms of presenting himself, but never considers any more macro or long-term picture, or even consistency or consequences”.
He almost appears surprised by how far this has gotten him?
Based on this, I would not believe anything he says here (or in general)?
I think that a part of this perception is created by him actively framing his actions in a way compatible with a ‘press secretary model of the human mind’ (cf. “Why everyone (else) is a hypocrite”).
My impression is that he does consciously notice a mistake, and is shaken to some degree. In distancing himself from the aspects of his thinking which led to this mistake, he treats his motivations as more clear-cut than they truly were and pushes against them.
If that story were the full truth, he would not have given these answers which are basically the opposite of “locally and situationally optimal in terms of presenting himself”.
I think that we would make a mistake in thinking “well, clearly SBF was a bad person all along, so I and other EAs will not end up making structurally similar mistakes anyway” (I am not trying to imply that this is what you said/think and only add this for completeness). Regarding lessons on a community level, I think that much of the discussion on the Forum in the recent days makes a lot of sense.
This is a well nuanced post. Cheers for the insight!