First, future people matter. [...] Second, the future could be vast. [...] Third, our actions may predictably influence how well this long-term future goes.
Here, whether longtermism (“positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time”) is true or false depends on whether our actions can predictably influence the far future. But it’s bad to collapse such a rich topic down to a binary true/false. (Imagine having a website IsInfluencingTheLongTermFutureAKeyMoralPriority.com to tell you whether longtermism is true for your time period.)
I would instead use the ITC framework combined with the premises that future people matter and that the future could be vast. Then, we evaluate specific interventions according to cost-effectiveness (or more precisely, marginal utility per dollar, MU/$). If interventions aimed at the long-term future turn out to have the highest MU/$, then funding is directed to them. If these interventions become fully funded and hit diminishing returns (i.e., tractability worsens), then funding is directed to other causes.
On this framing, we evaluate interventions on a case-by-case basis, and keep our focus on the ultimate goal: allocating resources across causes to maximize aggregate social welfare over all generations.
The argument for longtermism in a nutshell:
Here, whether longtermism (“positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time”) is true or false depends on whether our actions can predictably influence the far future. But it’s bad to collapse such a rich topic down to a binary true/false. (Imagine having a website IsInfluencingTheLongTermFutureAKeyMoralPriority.com to tell you whether longtermism is true for your time period.)
I would instead use the ITC framework combined with the premises that future people matter and that the future could be vast. Then, we evaluate specific interventions according to cost-effectiveness (or more precisely, marginal utility per dollar, MU/$). If interventions aimed at the long-term future turn out to have the highest MU/$, then funding is directed to them. If these interventions become fully funded and hit diminishing returns (i.e., tractability worsens), then funding is directed to other causes.
On this framing, we evaluate interventions on a case-by-case basis, and keep our focus on the ultimate goal: allocating resources across causes to maximize aggregate social welfare over all generations.