reducing x-risk is better on the margin as long as 0.00000000000000000000000000001% chance of doom is prevented by the next billion dollars, and this will basically always be true.
So you think there won’t be diminishing returns to x-risk interventions?
Sorry if this was rude. Basically on the meta level, I’m (i) afraid of this being some rhetorical trap to pin me down on some position that turns out to be false by accident rather than a good-faith effort to find the truth, and (ii) a bit annoyed that this is taking multiple replies. So I want some assurance that you’re either being Socratic or trying to find what I believe rather than just trying to win an argument.
On the object level, I think returns diminish by a few orders of magnitude. I haven’t thought about my exact moral views in practice, and I’m mainly just observing that to get reallocation in response to a few orders of magnitude of diminishing returns, your morality has to have certain properties, and the two candidates that first came to my mind didn’t have these properties.
So you think there won’t be diminishing returns to x-risk interventions?
Downvote for obviously misinterpreting me instead of making any number of potentially quite reasonable points directly.
Okay, so you think there are diminishing returns, but the magnitude is so small as to be irrelevant when comparing across causes?
Sorry if this was rude. Basically on the meta level, I’m (i) afraid of this being some rhetorical trap to pin me down on some position that turns out to be false by accident rather than a good-faith effort to find the truth, and (ii) a bit annoyed that this is taking multiple replies. So I want some assurance that you’re either being Socratic or trying to find what I believe rather than just trying to win an argument.
On the object level, I think returns diminish by a few orders of magnitude. I haven’t thought about my exact moral views in practice, and I’m mainly just observing that to get reallocation in response to a few orders of magnitude of diminishing returns, your morality has to have certain properties, and the two candidates that first came to my mind didn’t have these properties.