Since we have no real numbers for that narrow angle and it involves important factors we can’t mathematically model, I don’t know if we can settle that narrow question.
But what about the other narrow question: that if you assume the poorest countries will grow to a per capita GDP that’s ~50% of the per capita GWP in 100 years, which we assume will continue to grow by 2% annually over that timespan, the cost-effectiveness of saving a life by donating to GiveWell’s top charities today is ~3x higher than investing for 100 years and giving in 2126? Does that sound convincing at all to you?
The most arbitrary/​most uncertain part of this calculation is how the per capita GDP of the poorest countries will compare to the global average over the very long-term.
By the way, how did you determine that the current margin is either just enough or too much giving on global poverty to be optimal? Why isn’t the margin at which delaying is the right move a 10x higher or 10x lower level of aggregate spending? Or 100x higher/​lower? How does one determine that? Is there a quantitative, empirical argument based on real data?
Since we have no real numbers for that narrow angle and it involves important factors we can’t mathematically model, I don’t know if we can settle that narrow question.
But what about the other narrow question: that if you assume the poorest countries will grow to a per capita GDP that’s ~50% of the per capita GWP in 100 years, which we assume will continue to grow by 2% annually over that timespan, the cost-effectiveness of saving a life by donating to GiveWell’s top charities today is ~3x higher than investing for 100 years and giving in 2126? Does that sound convincing at all to you?
The most arbitrary/​most uncertain part of this calculation is how the per capita GDP of the poorest countries will compare to the global average over the very long-term.
By the way, how did you determine that the current margin is either just enough or too much giving on global poverty to be optimal? Why isn’t the margin at which delaying is the right move a 10x higher or 10x lower level of aggregate spending? Or 100x higher/​lower? How does one determine that? Is there a quantitative, empirical argument based on real data?