To be clear, “10 new OpenPhils” is trying to convey like, a gestalt or a vibe; how I expect the feeling of working within EA causes to change, rather than a rigorous point estimate
Though, I’d be willing to bet at even odds, something like “yearly EA giving exceeds $10B by end of 2031”, which is about 10x the largest year per https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NWHb4nsnXRxDDFGLy/historical-ea-funding-data-2025-update.
2031 is far too far away for me to take an interest in a bet about this, but I proposed one for the end of 2026.
To be clear, “10 new OpenPhils” is trying to convey like, a gestalt or a vibe; how I expect the feeling of working within EA causes to change, rather than a rigorous point estimate
Though, I’d be willing to bet at even odds, something like “yearly EA giving exceeds $10B by end of 2031”, which is about 10x the largest year per https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NWHb4nsnXRxDDFGLy/historical-ea-funding-data-2025-update.
2031 is far too far away for me to take an interest in a bet about this, but I proposed one for the end of 2026.