Ignoring accidental deflection, which might occur when an asteroid is moved to an Earth or Lunar orbit for research or mining purposes
I haven’t seen this mentioned in other discussion of asteroid risk (i.e. I don’t think Ord mentions it in the Precipice) but I don’t think it should be ignored so quickly. If states/corporations develop technology to transfer asteroids to Earth orbit then this seems like it would represent an equivalent dual-use concern. Indeed, it may be even riskier than just developing tools for deflection, as activities like mining could provide ‘cover’ for maliciously aiming an asteroid at Earth. On the positive side, similar tools can probably be used for both orbital transfer and deflection, so the risky technology may also be its own counter-technology.
We were pretty close to carrying out an asteroid redirect mission too (ARM), it was only cancelled in the last few years. It was for a small asteroid (~ a few metres across), but it could certainly happen sooner than I think most people suspect.
I haven’t seen this mentioned in other discussion of asteroid risk (i.e. I don’t think Ord mentions it in the Precipice) but I don’t think it should be ignored so quickly. If states/corporations develop technology to transfer asteroids to Earth orbit then this seems like it would represent an equivalent dual-use concern. Indeed, it may be even riskier than just developing tools for deflection, as activities like mining could provide ‘cover’ for maliciously aiming an asteroid at Earth. On the positive side, similar tools can probably be used for both orbital transfer and deflection, so the risky technology may also be its own counter-technology.
We were pretty close to carrying out an asteroid redirect mission too (ARM), it was only cancelled in the last few years. It was for a small asteroid (~ a few metres across), but it could certainly happen sooner than I think most people suspect.