While it is true that correlation is not causation, the fact that high median income is empirically necessary and sufficient for eliminating poverty on any poverty line is extremely strong evidence that increasing median income is a cause of eliminating poverty at any poverty line. There’s also a fairly obvious causal explanation i.e. growth increases everyone’s income. What else could be going on that explains the connection?
You say that “increasing median consumption through growth could be much more expensive than giving all that money to poor people directly.” This is very implausible. Globally, around $180bn is spent on aid per year—roughly $500 million per day. There are 500 million people who are extremely poor. Assuming that all the extreme poor have $1 per day already, we could double their income with the entire global aid budget. But, on any reasonable definition of poverty people with $2 per day are still extremely poor. The only thing that has ever pulled extremely poor people above more humane high bar poverty lines is economic growth.
While it is true that correlation is not causation, the fact that high median income is empirically necessary and sufficient for eliminating poverty on any poverty line is extremely strong evidence that increasing median income is a cause of eliminating poverty at any poverty line. There’s also a fairly obvious causal explanation i.e. growth increases everyone’s income. What else could be going on that explains the connection?
You say that “increasing median consumption through growth could be much more expensive than giving all that money to poor people directly.” This is very implausible. Globally, around $180bn is spent on aid per year—roughly $500 million per day. There are 500 million people who are extremely poor. Assuming that all the extreme poor have $1 per day already, we could double their income with the entire global aid budget. But, on any reasonable definition of poverty people with $2 per day are still extremely poor. The only thing that has ever pulled extremely poor people above more humane high bar poverty lines is economic growth.