I think constant population assumption is honestly pulled out of thin air and is just to simplify calculations – not because he thinks it actually makes sense. What’s much more relevant to his calculation is how long the world will last. Why assume that it will last one million years in total and not ten thousand?
It’s also interesting that he assumes that everyone is going to heaven and doesn’t even call out that assumption. Whether he was a universalist (believing everyone would go to heaven) or not, the fact that he fails to mention this assumption makes me question the seriousness of this letter. I wouldn’t read too much into this letter as evidence of how naive we could be.
Pointing out more weirdnesses may by now be unnecessary to make the point, but I can’t resist: the estimate also seems to equivocate between “number of people alive at any moment” and “number of people in each generation”, as if the 900 million population was comprised of a single generation that fully replaced itself each 31.125 years. Numerically this only impacts the result by a factor of 3 or so, but it’s perhaps another reason not to take it as a serious attempt :)
I think constant population assumption is honestly pulled out of thin air and is just to simplify calculations – not because he thinks it actually makes sense. What’s much more relevant to his calculation is how long the world will last. Why assume that it will last one million years in total and not ten thousand?
It’s also interesting that he assumes that everyone is going to heaven and doesn’t even call out that assumption. Whether he was a universalist (believing everyone would go to heaven) or not, the fact that he fails to mention this assumption makes me question the seriousness of this letter. I wouldn’t read too much into this letter as evidence of how naive we could be.
Pointing out more weirdnesses may by now be unnecessary to make the point, but I can’t resist: the estimate also seems to equivocate between “number of people alive at any moment” and “number of people in each generation”, as if the 900 million population was comprised of a single generation that fully replaced itself each 31.125 years. Numerically this only impacts the result by a factor of 3 or so, but it’s perhaps another reason not to take it as a serious attempt :)