Request for feedback -- CA water data application for google dot org climate challenge

Context: I wanted to share the following Google dot org climate challenge application for the California Data Collaborative, a water data analytics nonprofit I helped launch, for a couple purposes:

Request feedback from the EA community on how we communicate the project and how compelling it is.
Share the goals publicly to “pre-register” those so those can be revisted in a few years if we are able to get this funding.

The questions that would be particularly helpful to get feedback on are in bold italics.

Application:

What is your organization’s current number of employees? Do not include volunteers in this question—only full-time, paid staff of your organization.

[number field]

2 full time

11. What is your organization’s current annual budget (approximate, in US$)? Estimates are acceptable. Please do not include potential funding from this Challenge.

762k

12. Organization-wide, who are your top 5 largest partners or funders from the last 3 years?

Moulton Niguel Water District, Metropolitan Water District, Coachella Valley Water District, Alameda County Water District, Eastern Municipal Water District

Project Overview:

Please answer the following questions, each in 50 words or less. Your responses will give us a high-level understanding of your project and its goals. You will have the opportunity to provide more detail in later sections.

18. My project is named:

[text field]

California data collaborative (CaDC)

19. The specific problem I/we are tackling is…

[text field]

[50 word limit]

The last twenty years in California have been the driest in the last eight centuries. That unprecedented reality will only grow worse with climate change. Meanwhile our water management system is a tangled mess of over a thousand local water retailers and additional layers of regional, state, and federal agencies.

20. To counter this problem, we are addressing it by…

[text field]

[50 word limit]

Integrating critical customer level water usage data across fragmented local water utilities. This common data platform enables us to deploy open source software and streamline critical research and policy analysis to support water managers in adapting to whatever the future holds.

21. The role of technology in this project is…

[text field]

[50 word limit]

Data and software are central to what we do. We use a standard data science stack to integrate data from diverse IT systems, deploy decision support software, and conduct policy analysis supporting climate adaptation.

22. If successful, in five years the impact of our project will be…

[text field]

[50 word limit]

Eighty percent of California water utilities will be implementing leading water efficiency programmatic practices to bring down the water consumption of urban areas and we are able to implement these analytics in any area of the world faced with an aridifying climate.

23. The team/organization(s) leading this project is composed of…

[text field]

[50 word limit]

Two core full time staff, with an additional staff person being hired in Q3 2022, several contract data engineers, part time administrative and marketing staff, and in kind services from water utilities.

24. Describe the geographic area (e.g., Countries, Country, Cities) that your project impacts:

[text field]

[50 word limit]

The state of California is our testbed for R&D, but the entire American West and the larger world stand to benefit by making open source software for water managers publicly available and by scaling our institutional model.

25. How many years has your organization been working on this idea (the core idea of this project)?

[select one]

d. 5+ years

Ambition

26. Please tell us more about the problem you propose to address. Why did you choose to take it on?

[text field]

[150 word limit]

California faces a drought of biblical proportions. The last twenty years are the driest on record in the past eight centuries. It is time that we face hard truths about the urgent need to modernize water management. The consequences of inaction are a slow boiling crisis that threatens to escalate into civilization scale collapse.

Despite countless plans costing millions of public dollars, neither the state nor local agencies planned for three consecutive years of water levels like we are facing now. Six million people in Southern California currently lack access to Colorado River water and face one day a week outdoor watering restrictions.

Instead of decisive action to proactively address this epochal change, the California water community is embroiled in the same fights that have lasted for decades. That is not news to observers familiar with California’s water wars. Yet given the magnitude of our current challenges, we cannot let those familiar dynamics be an excuse for dithering and delay.

27. Please tell us more about your project idea. How will your project effectively address the problem you have described?

[text field]

[150 word limit]

The CaDC provides a common operational picture of how much water is flowing where, when and to what purpose.

That picture includes crisp analytics benchmarking what efficient water use looks like while accounting for specific customer characteristics, as well as the impact of actions such as cash rebates for water efficient appliances and landscape conversions on water use.

The collaborative integrates customer level water usage along with contextual data into a common platform.

That platform powers decision support analytics, streamlined academic research and seamless public reporting of data to state agencies.

The CaDC tools are augmented by a suite of services to accelerate the transformation of California’s water industry.

Those services include data analytics education through quarterly workshops and an annual Water Data Summit.

28. Contextualize your idea: what other approaches have been tried in the past? What is the insight or innovation that differentiates your project, and how is it better than what already exists?

[text field]

[150 word limit]

There’s been a bunch of for-profit water data analytics startups that have tried to do similar things to integrate data, deploy analytics and support better water management decisions. Those services struggle to gain adoption outside of leading utilities and California suffers from the lack of a comprehensive database.

The CaDC operates as a utility for local water utilities. The nonprofit shared services model aligns incentives with water retailers so that the project can scale statewide with support. The CaDC has already supported water utilities in adapting to state regulations that make water efficiency a California way of life.

This provides a subtle yet powerfully different model for managing public data like a public utility, one that has a solid foundation that can scale across California and beyond.

Impact

29. What stage is your project currently in? What tangible impact have you had to-date? [text field]

[150 word limit]

The CaDC has grown from a successful pilot to sustained impact and is poised for breakthrough growth.

CaDC analytics have helped our partners save over $20 million in avoided capital costs, informed the optimization of almost half a billion dollars in turf rebates and delivered California’s first ever statewide water efficiency benchmarks (for <5% the state government budgeted). The project has continued to enjoy steady, sustainable growth—a rarity in gov tech! You can see additional case studies of the impact of the project on the CaDC website here: https://www.thecadc.org/#Case-Studies

You can see the full detail of our plan for growth in the CaDC Staff Needs Assessment here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/rfenpuuhm8ev9x1/CaDC%20Update%20-%20Project%20Summary%20and%20Roadmap%20%2806.15.22%29%20%281%29.pdf?dl=0

30. What would the impact of this project be, if successful? Please quantify potential impact, if possible, using clear metrics such as the projected reduction of GhG emissions caused by your intervention, the number of people reached, the economic damage averted, etc. Please clearly identify any assumptions you made and include sources where available.

[text field]

[150 word limit]

The fifteen CaDC utilities currently serve 1.8 million Californians or approximately 5.6% of the state. When successful, CaDC utilities will serve 32 million Californians, over 80% of the state.

Data-informed interventions can then help agencies reduce their water use and prepare for climate change. Messaging that leverages informational water budgets has been shown to lead to a 10% reduction in water use. Targeting of water efficiency investments can lead to 20% more water saved per device. Uncertainty-aware demand forecasting can avoid millions of dollars in unnecessary capital expenditures and/or ensure that projects are right-sized for a future of extremes.

Beyond water savings and planning, there are millions of dollars in annual efficiency gains achievable by streamlining how data is shared and reported around the state. We have estimated that the submission of just 3 of many required reports costs water utilities at least $4 million annually.

31. How could your project and its impact grow beyond what you’ve proposed in this application? What breakthroughs, if amplified, could significantly help address climate change? How could others working to address climate change (e.g. governments, companies, nonprofits, global collaborations) benefit from the proposed solution? [text field]

[150 word limit]

The project could scale geographically to areas outside of California and/or grow to integrate data sources related to but beyond customer level water usage.

Geographic growth is straightforward in most cases as the software we develop is applicable to any water supply agency, as long as the appropriate data is available to populate the software.

When expanding outside of water, we could link in customer level electricity, natural gas and food usage through common parcel identifiers to have a comprehensive picture of end user natural resource demands. That would be transformative in being able to nudge households to be more efficient with their uses.

There are a variety of players working on data integration in the energy and food space. For example see the Green Button Alliance.

Innovative Use of Technology

32. How is technology at the core of your proposed solution? Please describe the innovative technology or application of technology in your solution, and explain how it will transform existing solutions to the issue you are addressing or create new solutions to unaddressed/approaching problems.

[text field]

[150 word limit]

The underlying problem that the CaDC solves is fragmentation. The CaDC coordinates across a complex array of institutions and IT systems. That isn’t just a technology problem but also an incentive and institutional trust challenge. Water is very political!

CaDC analytics provide a carrot to help water utilities get ahead of the curve of existing statewide regulations. Those tools are simple, straightforward and radically lower cost than what it would cost for a utility to hire consultants (the standard alternative in practice).

CaDC analytics also make use of statistical models originally developed at Google to measure the impact of advertising in non-experimental settings. This powerful paradigm is utilized to measure the impact of customer level interventions including cash rebates. That utilization of Google’s methodology was published in the Annals of Applied Statistics and is available here: https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-applied-statistics/volume-12/issue-4/Extending-Bayesian-structural-time-series-estimates-of-causal-impact-to/10.1214/18-AOAS1166.full

33. At what stage do you believe your technology is at?

[select one]

a. Research—an initial idea with a proof-of-concept

b. Prototype—prototype proven in test or real conditions, in component parts or at scale

c. Demonstration—solution working in expected conditions, public demonstration, or full scale deployment in final form

d. Adoption—solution is publicly available and competitive but may need further improvement or integration

e. Maturity—proof of stability reached with predictable growth

34. What parts of your technology have been validated and proven to work, and which, if any, are still unproven? How do you believe your technology can rapidly scale or be replicated with the right support?

[text field]

[150 word limit]

The core data integration and analytics platform is stable and has gone through several iterations of water manager feedback. Success stories of utilities using the platform are available on the CaDC blog here: https://medium.com/california-data-collaborative/tagged/case-study

Scaling from fourteen to say four hundred utilities in California will add additional complexities and challenges that will require additional engineering resources. The current bottleneck is just core staff time and then also having a backlog of work with existing utilities.

The part of our technology that needs the most work is the UI to make it as simple and clear as possible for agencies to connect to their data, extract insight, and share the data with others.

35. Does your project use AI?

[Y/N buttons]

[If yes, the survey will direct you to the AI module (optional)]

Perhaps talk about how AI could help with forecasting or increasing the robustness of water savings estimates or

Feasibility

36. Who is part of your main project team? Please list your team member’s information: a. Team Member Name: [text field]

b. Team Member Expertise: [text field]

c. Team Member Website/Bio/LinkedIn: [optional, website link]

d. [up to 5 submissions in the fields above]

Christopher Tull

David Marulli

37. What makes your core team best suited to tackle this project? And, if applicable, why are your partners the right ones to help achieve your project goals (e.g., complementary expertise, geographic reach, etc.)?

[text field]

[150 word limit]

The CaDC has the right water managers bought in along with solid data science talent. CaDC water managers have been pioneers in water management practices like the use of recycling wastewater, innovative pricing structures and now the use of modern data analytics to support best in class water efficiency programs. That experience and track record is invaluable in bringing their peers into the fold.

CaDC membership has more than tripled since its formation in 2016. Nearly 80% of member agencies have recommended membership to other organizations. All have stated they would, given the opportunity. Over 90% of member agencies are confident that they will remain members over the next five years. The remaining agencies are not sure due to the yearly approval process.

38. What are the 1-2 most significant risks or barriers that you anticipate in this project? How does your team plan to address them?

[text field]

[150 word limit]

The biggest risk is that California’s water industry continues along its path of inertia and infighting, avoiding the hard but necessary choices to prepare for the reality of increased water scarcity.

The CaDC plans to proactively grow and accelerate the inclusion of additional member agencies to expand the coalition willing to do the right thing and adopt the new data driven, best management practices.

That will require a profound culture shift as utilities are often uncomfortable with data. The Water industry was recently ranked in a Gartner market research report as second only to hunting in lagging the digital adoption curve.

The CaDC has the right water leaders who speak the language of their fellow water managers and can break through common excuses for inaction. The CaDC plans to build on that foundation and expand to provide an unbeatable value proposition: radically better services and a radically lower cost.

Timeline and Budget

39. Please provide a general timeline overview with key activities and milestones for your project implementation. Project funds can be utilized between a 12-36 month period. [text field]

[150 word limit]

Upon award of the project, the CaDC aims to expand and accelerate its membership activities. That will involve increased education, marketing and individual outreach. It is anticipated that membership drive will launch within 3 months of receipt of funds.

From 6-24 months, we aim to have a series of focused three month sprints with a product team to grow and mature CaDC analytics. That will involve bringing on a team of contract software developers to accelerate and mature the CaDC analytics offering.

On a parallel track, the CaDC will contract to develop water budgets focused on water scarce areas across the globe. That work is anticipated to take 9-12 months and will be launched from 6-12 months after grant receipt.

The CaDC has worked with a variety of industry and academic remote sensing experts that could independently lead and execute on this work.

40. Please provide a narrative overview of how your team would use the $5M USD funding amount, including the major categories of spend. If the total costs of your proposed project exceed $5M USD, explain how you have secured (or plan to secure) additional funding and provide an overview of how those funds will be used.

[text field]

[150 word limit]

These funds would be used to accelerate the CaDC product roadmap, expand the collaboratives services and execute a membership drive aimed at achieving 80% adoption across the California water industry within three years.

This section focused on California growth composes eighty five percent of the budget. The CaDC currently is breaking out from early adopters into the early mainstream of the water community. The purpose of this investment is to accelerate that organic growth and achieve near ubiquitous adoption across the California water industry in 3-5 years.

Fourteen percent of the funds would be used to develop a first pass of California-type water budgets across the globe. That will leverage the dramatic growth in quality satellite imagery and remote sensing to calculate what efficient water usage would look like and compare that to current water usage.

41. Please provide a specific line item budget breakdown of how your organization would use the $5M USD funding amount for your proposed project. Please list the major categories and subcategories of your budget and the approximate funding you’d allocate to each subcategory.

Please note: For-profit organizations may only use funds for staffing and overhead directly related to the charitable project. All organizations should have overhead expenses limited to 10% of the total budget or less. This maximum rate applies to the primary funding recipient, sub-grantees, and sub-contracts. Google.org only allows the indirect cost rates to be applied to sub-grants/contracts that are designated for research and development.

[text and numerical field. Under the Budget column, please do not enter special characters such as a dollar sign ($), comma (,), or period (.).]

Subcategory Budget
Education and marketing for member services drive targeting 80% adoption of CaDC analytics across the California water industry.	$500,000
Launch a water data pioneers fellowship with leading water managers, specifically water resource, efficiency and planning professionals to transform the culture of the industry	$750,000
Data engineering support to staff the influx of new agencies and support the transition to much larger data flows	$1,250,000
Accelerating the five year product roadmap into the next 18 months to build on early analytics and level up to provide an unbeatable value position, “an offer water managers can’t refuse.” This will be executed with a product team.	$1,750,000
Develop preliminary global parcel level estimates of landscape area, evapotranspiration and ancillary data to provide California-style water budgets for every area of the globe, with a particular focus on water scarce regions	$700,000
Sharing open source analytics at international water technology and utility conferences to educate policymakers, utility managers and other key stakeholders about the value of this approach, laying the foundation for global expansion	$50,000

Total	$5,000,000

Google dot org application budget

Request for feedback—CA water data application for google dot org climate challenge

Ambition

Timeline and Budget