I don’t think risk of this type is given too much weight now. In my model, considerations like this got at some point in the past rounded of to some over-simplified meme like “do not start projects, they fail and it is dangerous”. This is wrong and led to some counterfactual value getting lost.
This was to some extent reaction to the previous mood, which was more like “bring in new people; seed groups; start projects; grow everything”. Which was also problematic.
In my view we are looking at something like pendulum swings, where we were somewhere at the extreme position of not many projects started recently, but the momentum is in direction of more projects, and the second derivative is high. So I expect many projects will actually get started. In such situation the important thing is to start good projects, and avoid anti-unicorns.
IMO the risk was maybe given too much weight before, but is given too little weight now, by many people. Just look at many of the recent discussions, where security mindset seem rare, and many want to move fast forward.
Just wanted to say I appreciate the nuance you’re aiming at here. (Getting that nuance right is real hard)