Thanks for the feedback! I’m not really smart enough to figure something like that out tbh, and by the point I’d seen that my realistic options were within an order of magnitude of each other (and both high-risk with high overlap) I was pretty satisfied that my decision was likely gonna hinge on something else.
Maybe your adjustment would take it outside that range but I think at the point of extreme success these charities would be selling impact at competitive rates (so funders would be getting marginal value out of them), and more than likely going to counterfactual funders (ex. government). Maybe this is truer in GHD and especially mental health than in animal welfare, which seems more concentrated. But yeah, at this point I was pretty satisfied that Kaya Guides had minimal risk of substantial funding displacement in a success scenario (I can’t be too specific about this in public), so I picked it.
(Maybe again—I’m just highlighting my specific scenario, there’s definitely an attempt to generalise here but I didn’t think too hard through it)
Makes sense. Sorry I didn’t say this before but I really appreciate your comments on this post and the high effort modelling that you did when working out what to work on. I think it’s a great example to set for the community and shows how seriously you can take these decisions (if you want to).
Thanks for the feedback! I’m not really smart enough to figure something like that out tbh, and by the point I’d seen that my realistic options were within an order of magnitude of each other (and both high-risk with high overlap) I was pretty satisfied that my decision was likely gonna hinge on something else.
Maybe your adjustment would take it outside that range but I think at the point of extreme success these charities would be selling impact at competitive rates (so funders would be getting marginal value out of them), and more than likely going to counterfactual funders (ex. government). Maybe this is truer in GHD and especially mental health than in animal welfare, which seems more concentrated. But yeah, at this point I was pretty satisfied that Kaya Guides had minimal risk of substantial funding displacement in a success scenario (I can’t be too specific about this in public), so I picked it.
(Maybe again—I’m just highlighting my specific scenario, there’s definitely an attempt to generalise here but I didn’t think too hard through it)
Makes sense. Sorry I didn’t say this before but I really appreciate your comments on this post and the high effort modelling that you did when working out what to work on. I think it’s a great example to set for the community and shows how seriously you can take these decisions (if you want to).