If the data were available, the amount an CE charity might be able to raise on average from funders other than highly-aligned funders might work better if someone were deploying your analysis for a different decision about whether to found a CE charity vs. earn to give. You’ve mentioned that you were “satisfied that Kaya Guides had minimal risk of substantial funding displacement in a success scenario,” so it makes sense that you wouldn’t adjust for this when making your specific decision.
(The working, rough assumption here is that the average CE charity can put a dollar to use roughly as well as the average GiveWell grantee or ACE-recommended charity—so moving $1 from the latter to the former produces neither a net gain nor a net loss. That’s unlikely to be particularly correct, but it’s probably closer to the actual effect than not adjusting for where the money went counterfactually).
If the data were available, the amount an CE charity might be able to raise on average from funders other than highly-aligned funders might work better if someone were deploying your analysis for a different decision about whether to found a CE charity vs. earn to give. You’ve mentioned that you were “satisfied that Kaya Guides had minimal risk of substantial funding displacement in a success scenario,” so it makes sense that you wouldn’t adjust for this when making your specific decision.
(The working, rough assumption here is that the average CE charity can put a dollar to use roughly as well as the average GiveWell grantee or ACE-recommended charity—so moving $1 from the latter to the former produces neither a net gain nor a net loss. That’s unlikely to be particularly correct, but it’s probably closer to the actual effect than not adjusting for where the money went counterfactually).