There’s a lot of existing analysis and literature on how to become a billionaire startup founder (or quant trader, etc.). But there seems to be little analysis of how to turn a $1b fortune into a $100b fortune. Put differently, it’s pretty clear to me how one might make $10m or $100m per year, but very unclear how one could make $10b per year, even though e.g. Gautam Adani seems to have done just that.
Do you have an overall take on whether there are any strategies that seem to work predictably, or whether it’s pure luck at that point? (Perhaps it’s worth looking out for strategies that require billions of dollars of capital as a barrier of entry, otherwise markets are likely to be efficient.)
One answer might be to, over the course of a few decades, create $1T worth of value and capture 10% of it. When I think about what could qualify, yeah, infrastructure projects in a rapidly growing developing county could qualify.
Another answer might be to cozy up with corrupt elites, and then immorally capture some % of a country’s GDP.
I/Samotsvety have a forecasting piece in the work where we try to estimate the chances that an EA could become a billionaire, and a few of the forecasters have some comments that somewhat overlap with this, might be worth it for you to keep an eye on it.
There’s a lot of existing analysis and literature on how to become a billionaire startup founder (or quant trader, etc.). But there seems to be little analysis of how to turn a $1b fortune into a $100b fortune. Put differently, it’s pretty clear to me how one might make $10m or $100m per year, but very unclear how one could make $10b per year, even though e.g. Gautam Adani seems to have done just that.
Do you have an overall take on whether there are any strategies that seem to work predictably, or whether it’s pure luck at that point? (Perhaps it’s worth looking out for strategies that require billions of dollars of capital as a barrier of entry, otherwise markets are likely to be efficient.)
I haven’t thought much about this.
One answer might be to, over the course of a few decades, create $1T worth of value and capture 10% of it. When I think about what could qualify, yeah, infrastructure projects in a rapidly growing developing county could qualify.
Another answer might be to cozy up with corrupt elites, and then immorally capture some % of a country’s GDP.
I/Samotsvety have a forecasting piece in the work where we try to estimate the chances that an EA could become a billionaire, and a few of the forecasters have some comments that somewhat overlap with this, might be worth it for you to keep an eye on it.
I imagine that if the matter is of more than academic interest, it wouldn’t be that difficult to commission some research into it.